Assessing Risk (Saturday, 7 June 2014, 13:30 – 15:15)

Global Risk Model: a Fully Probabilistic Seismic and Tropical Cyclone Wind Risk Assessment
Omar Darío CARDONA (Colombia)

Level of Seismic Exposure of Health Facilities in Mexico City, Mexico

Assessment of Multi-Hazard Risk Toward Disaster Risk Reduction by Design
Kenji SATAKE (Japan)

The Establishment of a Natural Disaster Risk Assessment Model for Mountain Scenic Areas in China: a Case Study of Mount Huangshan
Junxiang ZHANG (China)


Global Risk Model: a Fully Probabilistic Seismic and Tropical Cyclone Wind Risk Assessment

Omar Dario CARDONA1, Mario G. ORDAZ2, Mario A. SALGADO3, Miguel G. Mora3, Gabriel A. Bernal3, Daniela Zuloaga4, Mabel C. Marulanda3, Diana M. Gonzalez5 and Luis E. Yamin5

  1. Instituto de Estudios Ambientales, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Manizales, Manizales, Colombia
  2. Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
  3. International Centre for Numerical Methods in Engineering, Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain
  4. Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, USA
  5. Universidad de Los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia

The aim of the Global Risk Model (GRM) for the UN-ISDR’s 2013 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR 2013), has been to obtain disaster risk figures for all countries in the world using a first-time fully probabilistic methodology to evaluate risk due to tropical cyclone and earthquake hazards at global level. Since hazard is represented through a set of stochastic scenarios, risk indicators such as the average annual loss and probable maximum loss for a fixed return period were obtained at country level. A coarse grain probabilistic risk assessment was performed using CAPRA-GIS, the CAPRA Platform’s risk calculator. The results were normalised by economic indicators such as the produced capital and the gross fixed capital to provide a reference of the relative economic impact and coping capacity of the countries. Risk maps and rankings at global level, by region and by economic development level were generated to easily visualise and interpret the risk results. For the case of flooding in selected countries in the Caribbean and South Asia region, the average annual loss was calculated directly from the intensity exceedance curve. Results are intended to capture the attention of financial and planning national decision-makers to advocate them to assess risk with better resolution and details at national and sub-national levels, using consistent information appropriate with the scale of analysis but with the same probabilistic approach of the GRM.

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Level of Seismic Exposure of Health Facilities in Mexico City, Mexico


  1. Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México D.F., Posgrado en Ciencias de la Tierra, Riesgos por Fenómenos Naturales. Ciudad Universitaria, Delegación Coyoacán, C.P. 04510, México D.F., México
  2. Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Delegación Coyoacán, C.P. 04510, México D.F., México

Hospitals are used as first response in emergency and disaster situations and they play an important role not only during the response phase but also during the recovery process of a community after the impact of a major earthquake. Direct social impact of past earthquakes to hospitals in developing countries has been very high and involves a large destabilisation of their economy. For these reasons, it is necessary to carefully design the structure as well as the location of hospitals to minimise their exposure to seismic hazards. To identify the level of physical exposure of hospitals to seismic hazards in Mexico City, we analysed their geographic location with respect to the seismic response of the different type of soils to which these installations are located. We considered three exposure levels: low (located in Zone I), moderate (located in Zone II) and high (located in Zone III). Hospital facilities were converted from a simple database of names and locations and general information into a Geographical Information System (GIS) map layer of resources. This resource layer was superimposed to the GIS map layer of seismic zonation to identify those hospitals that may be damaged by the occurrence of a large seismic event. Our results indicate that main hospitals located in the lakebed zone (Zone III) are highly exposed to seismic hazards and that they represent about 49 percent of the total installations. Approximately, 19 percent are located in the transition zone (Zone II), and 32 percent in the hill zone (Zone I). A total of 50 percent of the public’s main hospitals are located in Zone III. Combining the results of the main and reference hospitals, we conclude that at least 50 percent of the most important health facilities in Mexico City are highly exposed to seismic hazards. Approximately 56 percent of public and 44 percent of the private reference hospitals are located in soils with high seismic wave amplification properties. As a result of this work, we identified the best areas in Mexico City to set up temporary medical facilities and the best secondary transportation routes in case of disaster situations. Our results will support decision-makers in Mexico City in the development of a comprehensive seismic hazard mitigation and prevention programme of health facilities including response planning.

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Assessment of Multi-Hazard Risk Toward Disaster Risk Reduction by Design

Kenji SATAKE1, Kaoru TAKARA2 and Kuniyoshi TAKEUCHI3

  1. Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo
  2. Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University
  3. ICHARM, Public Work Research Institute

The Japanese IRDR National Committee is currently preparing a proposal for a new discipline of science titled toward disaster risk reduction by design. It consists of five components: assessment of multi-hazard risks, monitoring exposure and vulnerability, linking disaster risk reduction and economic growth, behavioural disaster management, and data integration and information fusion.

The first step for such multi-disciplinary and trans-disciplinary research is a promotion of integrated studies on multi-hazards and risks. Multi-hazards can be classified into those with causative relations and those without. The former includes earthquakes and tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and lahars, or torrential rains and landslides. Forecasts and early warning systems can be established and useful for such causative or secondary hazards. The latter kinds of multi-hazards are coincidental occurrences of geohazards (earthquakes or volcanic eruptions) and meteorological hazards (typhoons or torrential rains). In such cases, the probability of simultaneous occurrence of hazard and risk can be estimated from probabilistic assessments of each hazard. Probabilistic hazard assessment is particularly important for critical facilities such as nuclear power plants.

Another important aspect of hazard assessment is the effects of long-term changes of climate or tectonic processes on hazard occurrence. For example, how does global warning affect the occurrence of a typhoon or its strength, or is there, and are we in an active period of earthquakes in particular regions of the world? Such effects must be considered for forecasting hazards in the long-term range.

Uncertainties associated with forecasting must be also examined and disseminated. Uncertainties are classified into aleatory uncertainties or random variables, and epistemic uncertainties or modelling uncertainties. The former originates from randomness of nature, while the latter is due to our incomplete knowledge.

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The Establishment of a Natural Disaster Risk Assessment Model for Mountain Scenic Areas in China: a Case Study of Mount Huangshan

Junxiang ZHANG, Shanfeng HU, Hongbin ZHU, Guoxing ZHU, Juan WANG

Tourism College, Huangshan University, Huangshan,245021,China

Global environmental changes lead to increased frequency and scale of natural disasters. Mountain scenic areas in China are under the influence of global warming and extreme weather. There is growing scientific evidence that many mountain scenic areas in China have become increasingly disaster-prone in recent decades, due to increased vulnerability and climatic extremes. There is an urgent need to include the concepts of risk management into planning, sustainable development and environmental impact assessment of mountain scenic areas. An important element of disaster risk management is risk assessment. Most of the existing models for natural disaster risk assessment require large samples. The data of natural disasters available from mountain scenic areas are scarce and often accompanied with a high degree of uncertainty. For this reason the use of conventional probabilistic risk assessment may not be well-suited. Thus, in this study, we explore various theories related to different kinds of natural disaster risk analysis mechanisms, with the goal of establishing a risk assessment model by using fuzzy set theory to model the occurrence likelihood and consequences of natural disasters. The application of this method is demonstrated using the case study on Mount Huangshan. The objectives of this study are to increase the operational capacity of mountain scenic areas to respond in emergencies caused by natural disasters and to reduce the impacts of natural disasters to mountain scenic areas.

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